One of my favorite psychological concepts is the Dunning-Kruger effect.
This effect — named for the psychologists who discovered it — explains a common cognitive bias.
In particular, it describes the gap between how we think we perform at a task and how we actually perform at that task.
The Dunning-Kruger effect proclaims that those who are the most confident in their performance are, in fact, all too often overconfident.
For example, if someone is convinced they crushed an exam, there’s a pretty good chance they got a B instead. And if someone thinks they’re the best at the task they do, there’s a good chance they’re actually solidly above average.
This effect is more pronounced in men than in women. And since it’s a metacognition error, the person affected has no way of recognizing the predicament they’re in.
To borrow some old-school Hip-Hop lingo, those afflicted by the Dunning-Kruger effect are acting a fool, with no ability to check themselves before they wreck themselves.
There are many reasons to be intrigued by the Dunning-Kruger effect.
For one thing, it can serve as karmic justice who talk a big game yet fail to deliver. For another, it can provide scientific backing to the Schadenfreude we feel when those with the biggest egos get knocked down a few pegs by reality.
Most of all, can make us seem slightly less cruel when calling out people for their misplaced hubris. After all, saying You Dumbass is subjective. Saying You made an error in judgment that any of us could have also made is objective.
Yet, this is not what intrigues me about the Dunning-Kruger effect. For I see this effect as more than just a vehicle for derision.
I see it as an explanation of where we are as a society today.
If you’ve been paying attention to the news in recent years, you’ve likely noticed two themes.
Powerful men in media and entertainment have seen a reckoning, as the women they’ve exploited have held them to account. And powerful men in politics have acted more brazen and boisterous than ever, with seemingly no one in place to hold them to account.
It’s a strange dichotomy. One group of powerful men falling, and another group seemingly becoming infallible.
Yet, while these men are on opposing career trajectories, they have one thing in common: A large group of detractors.
The detractors despise these men. For who they are, what they’ve done and what they’re still doing. As such, they haven’t been shy in voicing their displeasure.
Yet, when these detractors describe their sworn enemies, they all too often use E words.
Entitled. Egotistical. Evil.
I think these detractors are off track. The word I think more accurately describes the powerful men in question starts with an O.
Overconfident.
I believe these men are mired deep in the quicksand of Dunning-Kruger effect. So deep that they’ve become delusional.
The ingredients are all in place for this explanation.
These men were raised in the early generations of Bro Culture. Many of the transgressions of their youth were often dismissed with the phrase Boys will be boys.
As they grew up, success seemed to follow them anywhere they went. Whether through talent or connections, they were able to make it to the next level with relative ease. Fame and fortune followed.
The result was predictably toxic.
A group of men who never learned boundaries with an outsized sense of confidence and too much power. The Dunning-Kruger effect on the biggest of stages.
The transgressions and blunders that followed were, sadly, predictable. Whenever that much unchecked overconfidence is in place, delusion sets in, and collateral damage piles up.
Tragically, that collateral damage has ruined many women’s lives and jolted international diplomacy and trade. It’s led to an era marked by mistrust, anger and polarization.
The world as we know it is getting sucked into the maelstrom. All because of a destructive condition we can’t control.
Or can we?
I am a terrible dancer.
I know it. I believe it. And I’m not shy in admitting it.
Whenever I’m at a party, I make it abundantly clear that I’m not going to be dancing.
I do this for self-preservation. It’s not just that I can’t bust a move. I’m literally afraid to try and do so.
Yet, as the night goes on and my friends get a few drinks in, they inevitably drag me onto the dance floor.
And each time, something interesting happens. I find out I’m not as bad at dancing as I thought I was.
I’m no Patrick Swayze or Bruno Mars, of course. But I can hold my own.
This revelation represents the other side of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
In Dunning and Kruger’s initial studies, they not only found a large group of people who were overconfident in their performance on a given task, but they also found several people who underestimated their abilities on the same task.
There are several explanations for this. On a basic level, people exhibiting this behavior might have experienced failure before, along with the dreaded sensation of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt). These feelings, on their own, can raise apprehension and lower confidence.
But when you factor in all the overconfident people out there — the very ones who are exposed as frauds by the Dunning-Kruger effect — things get interesting.
Could it be that the underconfident people equate confidence with ability? That they see the people with the biggest bravado and exclaim There’s no way I’m at that level?
It could be so. And indeed it is.
Underconfident people often battle something called Imposter Syndrome. Even when they see visceral success, they often believe they are not truly qualified for the task, and it’s only a matter of time until they’re found out.
I myself frequently battle Imposter Syndrome — in my job, in my social life, and even occasionally when writing these articles.
It’s a crippling phenomenon. One only exacerbated by the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Someone battling Imposter Syndrome is likely to see an overconfident person as a standard bearer for achievement. While the actual gap in performance between the two might be small or nonexistent, the underconfident person will feel as if they just don’t measure up.
This thinking is problematic in our culture. Our society favors boldness and self-belief; Imposter Syndrome is all too often viewed as a self-created roadblock to realizing our own potential — one that must be eradicated at all costs.
Yet, given what we now know about Dunning-Kruger effect, I wonder if that’s the right tact to pursue.
If boldness makes us delusional and causes a trail of collateral damage that polarizes our society, is it really the best ideal to strive for?
Perhaps it would be better to let that FUD slip into our lives. To put ourselves in position to fail now and then so that we know where the guardrails lie. To estimate our abilities off our own experience, rather than the flawed self-assessments of others.
If we can do all that, then perhaps someday Dunning-Kruger effect wouldn’t be the catastrophe-maker it currently is. It could become a quaint psychological term to describe the select few who resist their better angels. The few who would still insist on talking the talk without walking the walk.
The rest of us would be grounded in reality. The reality of life in its rawest, purest form.
I’d sign up for a future like that. Would you?